Cuts as strong or even stronger than in the financial crisis
The Federal Minister of Economy does not share the opinion of the Council of Experts: On Monday, in an opinion, the government advisors described a break-in of the German economy due to the Corona crisis at 2.8 percent as the most likely scenario. But Peter Altmaier continues to assume that the minus will be significantly greater.
The CDU politician expects a break-in, as in the financial crisis 2009, rather more so. At that time, German economic performance declined by five,6 percent. This assessment is also based on the supplementary budget and the multi-billion programmes that the Federal Government and the Bundestag launched last week.
The reason for this should also be uncertainties about the course of the Corona crisis in other countries. While economic practices in their rather optimistic scenario were based on developments in China, where the economy is being revived, the federal government is also looking at other world regions.
The USA as a factor of uncertainty
And the consequences of the pandemic in the US, for example, are not yet predictable. The greatest economic power on Earth could be hit harder than previously thought. And that will have a massive impact on the world economy. This could help explain Altmaier's more cautious prognosis.
If the US economy, which is usually quite robust in times of crisis, shrinks just as much as in Germany, there is little room for optimism. 2009, for example, the gross domestic product in the United States only dropped by 2.8 percent, so the break-in was only half as deep as in Germany. In its forecast for the Federal Republic of Germany on Thursday, the Trade Union Institute IMK adopted a minus of four percent this year, with the US economy shrinking by three percent.
Only in the second half of the year
Altmaier therefore remains cautious in its assessment, probably also in order not to give the impression that the restrictive measures of shutdown in the economy could be reduced quite quickly. "The cuts will be as strong or even stronger than in the financial crisis," he stressed. In May, according to the minister, it will be hardest to expect a minus of up to eight percent then.
Only in the second half of the year will the economy take off again. And there was the prospect of "reasonable growth" in the 2021-year period. It is also because the government is already considering a fitness programme, as Altmaier called it, that is, measures to stimulate the economy.(徳囯ASK电容器)